Saturday, June 3, 2017

A Political Pearl Harbor

Probably the only instance of me ever uttering something prophetic happened in the immediate aftermath of the Persian Gulf War, commonly referred to as “Operation Desert Storm.” Since history is a weak subject for most lets backtrack for a moment. Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait, a much smaller and weaker country was rightly opposed by the United States and the coalition of nations it formed. Oil be damned, had Saddam's actions gone unopposed it would have eventually lead to every second-rate dictatorial cockroach invading weaker neighbors in an effort to build an empire. When you throw in Saddam's treatment of people inside Iraq, the inventory of chemical weapons he had at that time, and his interest in acquiring even more powerful destructive capability he had to be stopped.

That being said, First President Bush's decision to leave Saddam in power was also the right thing to do. The nation of Iraq is a Frankenstein's monster of varying ethnic and religious subgroups created by the British in the aftermath of the First World War and the dismemberment of the Ottoman Empire. Saddam was a monster and if Hell really exists he most certainly is now a resident. But you have only to look at the bloodbath Iraq became after he was removed from power to understand that while the lesser of two evils is still bad, sometimes the alternative is even worse. Yes, I am totally discounting the idea that we invaded Iraq to take away Saddam's WMD's. There was plenty of intelligence, all ignored or hidden, that his desire to produce a nuclear bomb had no basis in reality. As for his stockpile of chemical and biological weapons, aside from a few pitiful exceptions they were all destroyed or taken back during the 1990's.

History lesson over, my post Operation Desert Storm epiphany involved the realization that despite Saddam's real but relatively minor threat in the 1990's, and the much propagandized menace he was made to be after 9/11, he was not an existential danger to the United States. The statement I made to my cohorts at the time was that Saddam Hussein was an idiot and that the United States might find itself in some really deep shit if it ever had to face and adversary with more than a few dozen IQ points.

My point being that given the capabilities Iraq's military had right after he invaded Kuwait, Saddam could have caused significant trouble in such places as Saudi Arabia or even Israel before there was anywhere near enough American troops and equipment on site to deter him. What that means is that since Saudi oil is a major factor in the international economy if Saddam had just attacked its refineries with Scud missiles he could have caused another Great Depression.

Even worse, since one of the worst kept secrets of the modern era is that Israel has a significant cache of nuclear weapons had Saddam said screw it and attempted a full scale attack on the Jewish state an apocalyptic event with clouds of radioactive fallout drifting out from the Middle East would have more than likely occurred. Saddam Hussein didn't hold any military punches out of the hidden, moral goodness of his heart. The man was an utter bastard, which was only exceeded by his ego and incompetence. (On a side note unrelated to my point, I will refrain from the eerie physiological comparisons I could make between Saddam and Trump.)

Of course, my point that Saddam was not an existential threat to the United States was pretty much ignored. This early 1990's when the modern version of American exceptionalism was born with one of the central pillars of that belief being the idea that the United States was immune to all the factors that had brought down numerous other powers all through history. For those on the right, their narrow view held that the United States was king shit and would go on kicking ass forever. Those on the left held a similar but slightly askew view that through its military power and faceless corporations the United States had bullied the world into submission and the idea that anyone else would rise up to threaten us was ridiculous.

Well, history is replete with nations and empires whose citizens and subject were convinced would hold power forever. Low and behold the 2016 presidential election was hacked by the Russians with them flooding both social and television media with stolen emails and fake news stories. Contrary to the more excitable and less rational on the left, I have yet to hear or read any evidence that Russia hacked into the computers that were linked to electronic voting machines. But what the Russians actually did to sabotage Hillary Clinton's campaign was bad enough.

After decades of the Soviet Union pouring untold hundreds of billions of rubles into their military machine in an attempt to overwhelm the United States, it looks like all the Russians had to do was tickle the ugly underbelly of American political paranoia and abject racism to goad us to tearing ourselves apart. Now, I'll admit while I voted for Hillary both her and the people running the campaign made it easy for the Russians to dig up information to use against them. It's funny to think now that back when the collection of Republican clowns, fools, and idiots were in the primary phase of the campaign I had the stupid idea that since Hillary was a long time political warrior there shouldn't be much for them to use against her. I totally ignored the fact that things could be made up out of whole cloth and that Hillary has a history of being her own worst enemy.

With that out of the way, the fact remains that a hostile foreign power, I'll go ahead say existential enemy, has found a dependable way to make the powerful United States look like a sick old man suffering from dementia. What really turns my stomach is how many in the Republican party view Vlad Putin, a dictator who murders journalists and dissidents, as someone who should be admired. Sort of makes a mockery of how they looked down upon and even accused liberals of something close to treason if any mention of peaceful coexistence was suggested during the Cold War.

Of course, to many of the less educated folks on the right Putin is a masculine (white) dude who doesn't spend time worrying about inconvenient things like civil liberties and basic human rights. The acquaintances I known in that group, all certified rednecks, have almost a homoerotic fixation on the manly Putin riding on horses without a shirt and his association with washed up martial artists/movie stars like Steven Segal. It goes along with the perceived notion of him standing against gay marriage, and other liberal causes that they believe America needs to be saved from. But most of all they like Putin because he was white while the democratically elected American president was a black guy.

Since I have lived in the American South most of my life it would have shocked me to hear anyone of that type say anything but the usual thinly veiled racist talk. But I've got to admit it is the established right-wing that has most disappointed me with their downplaying of Russian involvement in the 2016 election. Yes, there are notable exceptions like Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham but the Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan, and the majority leader of the senate, Mitch McConnell have only given the barest lip service to Russian hacking. Those members of Congress and in the Senate occupying the fuzzy middle between the two are just waiting to see what the various investigations will or will not turn up. Largely a rational approach given the nature of the allegations against Trump, but that stance is less about finding the truth and far more with just protecting their asses and cushy jobs.

What it all comes down to is that the Russians pulled a blatant electoral Pearl Harbor on the United States. For me that is almost reason to go to war, but what scares me the most is that Americans are so politically polarized that many on the right are okay with the hacking since they hated Hillary Clinton more than they are concerned with the state of their country.

Don't worry, I'm not excluding Democrats/liberals/progressives for putting party and ideological purity above the health and safety of the nation. The main election strategy for both parties is to convince voters that the other side is evil. Yes, as a liberal Democrat I do believe some Republican ideas are baldfaced attempts to protect the rich elites, but I also realize Democrats have their own faults and inability to see the forest for the trees. I'm not saying we should all go for one big group hug and then break into singing “Kumbaya,” I can be just as partisan as any other dickhead, especially when I believe the Republicans are dead wrong on a subject like climate change. But democracy only works if the different factions compromise, it's an ugly process but works far better than one side controlling everything only to be kicked out of power at the next election when nothing really gets done.

It goes without saying the American political process is a screwed up system. Both parties paint the other as the enemy with many members saying any sort of cooperation with their counterparts is a betrayal of sacred principles. In the past such behavior could largely be overlooked since no other country would dare to interfere. That time has passed with Vlad Putin and the Russian government he controls making it part of their way of dealing with foreign governments. Putin is the worst possible adversary we could face in this current era. He and his minions have found what divides Americans and will not hesitate to widen the existing chasm as long as we continue allow him.

It appears the time when Americans pulled together when faced with an adversary has passed into history. Then again, all we really have to blame for this behavior is ourselves. What should scare every rational American most of all is that the situation is probably only going to get worse.


Harry Hamid said...

Oh wow, this got my mind going.

I'll stick with the current political stuff for now. I don't like Hillary Clinton, I never have, and I suspected from the start she might be unlikable and damaged goods enough to lose the election - although after the Republican candidate was chosen, her chances looked better.

I say that because Trump is right: He won the election. I don't, however, see what that has to do with whether it's worth investigating the Russian activities prior to the election. A foreign government cyber-meddling in our political affairs should trouble all of us regardless of which candidate it might have benefitted!

OK. Now we have Trump & Company clearly doing what they can to stop the entire investigation because "there's no evidence" Trump was colluding with the Russians.

If the house next door to me burns down and I go running out saying,"There's no need to investigate the fire because it had nothing to do with me!" then I've just implicated myself. The fire should be investigated regardless of whether or not I was involved, right?

But national politics is like a giant football game with people in the stands cheering their team on without much thought.

MigratingSpirit said...

What will bring Americans together (or used to) is a huge tragedy. Sadly our leaders regardless of political affiliations are not interested in pulling everyone together. They thrive in this great divide. It is frightening.

Jimmy said...

I agree with Migrating Spirit it appears our leaders have no interest in pulling everyone together, they seem more interested in going against one another, and with leaders like this it will get a lot worse a long time before it gets better.

Ranch Chimp said...

An educational read for me, Thank You for your assessment

Pixel Peeper said...

Somehow, I'm afraid that a huge tragedy will happen and the possible consequence being Trump's approval ratings skyrocketing...and any kind of investigation into the Russian connection going by the wayside.

Beach Bum said...

Harry: I've got to clarify something about my support for Hillary. Yes, I voted for her and felt Bernie wasn't exactly moored in practical reality. What first turned me off to Bernie though was his more rabid supporters. That being said, I went years not liking Hillary. The saying that politics can make strange bedfellows was never more proved than in 2016.

As for Trump and Co. protesting the investigation into Russian meddling it stuns me that they could be so stupid since their behavior screams that something far more went on then hackers just stealing emails.

Migrating Spirit and Jimmy: Yeah, our leaders have taken the bait and regularly divide us but I've got to admit the behavior largely began on the fringes with such people as Rush Limbaugh. I'm not blaming the media since I don't consider the likes of Limbaugh as anything but propaganda.

Ranch: No problem!

Pixel: It is a possibility.

Mycue23 said...

As always. brilliant observations. I don't think I've read a better explanation of why it was the correct decision to leave the dictatorship in Iraq alone by Bush Sr. As for where we stand today, I think we are screwed. The biggest consequence that this election will bring about is the changing of the Supreme Court for the next 30 years. Ginsberg and Kennedy will definitely be gone in next four years and that will leave a hardcore conservative court in place for the rest of my lifetime. There is no appeal from a Supreme court decision. We are stuck. There is no "it's only 4 years", or we'll get them next time. We are stuck.
Our glorious leader can be replaced in 4 years. His edicts, which will come mostly through executive orders, can be undone. The people he puts on the Court will be there basically forever (given my life expectancy). We remain a divided country and it's only going to worse. I wish I had a better picture to paint, but we become more trapped in our ideological bubbles every day. We are convinced the other side is wrong and there is simply no middle ground.

The Bug said...

I'm just dumbfounded by the lack of concern about Russian influence. But I guess I grew up during the cold war, so I remember how little we trusted them then.

sage said...

"It goes without saying the American political process is a screwed up system." -Yep!

Blogoratti said...

Interesting thoughts and perspective indeed, and food for thought.